What Is on The Ban List

SUMMARY

This document attempts to answer, in part, the question, “What is on the Liberal Ban List”.
The list is being kept a secret but several clues, rumors and inductive reasoning illuminates some of this list.  The list that I compiled, IS NOT A COMPLETE LIST.  Bill Blair is being deliberately sneaky and is not releasing the complete list for his own nefarious reasons.

Unlike everyone else pondering lists on the internet, I have included my methodology and reasoning.

Firstly, I have posted the list.  Most people are not interested in why I came up with what I did so I have spared them from a long read.  For those interested in hearing more, they can read on.


THE INCOMPLETE LIST

Will Be Banned:
-Vz58 family
-M305 family
-Ar15
-Mini-xx family
-SKS rifles
-CX4
-Type 97
-Tavor
-Swiss Arms

High Likelihood of Being Banned
-MP40 (9mm)
-XCR
-ACR
-AR10s
-AR102 variants (BCL102, Stag 102 Troy 102)

Moderate Likelyhood of Being Banned
-DA50**
-Lynx
-BRS-99



METHODOLGY

Everyone wants to know what is on the Liberal ban list.
Several people claim to have privileged knowledge of this list but respond with vague fear inducing answers, unwilling to give details, sources or methods.
For all we know, they could be pulling information out of their asses for a chance in the internet spotlight.

What we can do is derive reasonable hypothesis based on verifiable facts and rational premises.



THE FACTS

Let's start with what we know and determine to be factually correct.

In an interview done by the CCFR with the thief-chief Bill Blair have laid out the methodology he used to select items for his ban list.  He mentioned the Moncton shooter and the Mosque shooter indicating he is looking at past shooting crimes. He also claims to have input from police as to what they want banned.

Combining this information and Trudeau's statements on Polytechnic we start off with the following list: VZ58 family, m305 family, AR-15, Mini-xx family, SKS rifles, CX4, G3 and variants*.

I deliberately left out the 30-30 used on parliament hill because of Blair's reaction when it was brought up; I am certain it is not on the list.

Blair mentioned he consulted with the police. We know the RCMP in particular have a hate on for some guns as evidenced by documents obtained by FOIP requests.
SKS, Type 97, Tavor, AR-15, Sten guns*, Sterling and semi auto reproductions of assault rifles and submachine  guns.
We also know that C-71 removed parliamentary oversight so we can add the Swiss Arms
"550" type rifles.

We need to explore one of these points, the so called copies of assault rifles and submachine guns.
The RCMP have been very aggressive prohibiting look alikes from the GSG-5 to the Blaze-47. A few have slipped through the cracks: GSG-15, MP44, MP40 (9mm), MP40 (22lr), GSG-16.

All of the above are imported by a company owned by a former RCMP officer.
Outside of that company the ISSC mk22 also gets a pass despite looking exactly like the prohibited-classified Mk16 SCAR.  FYI, the GSG-15 is the same gun as the ISSC mk22 but without the SCAR buttstock.

Traditionally, advisers to the Liberals have gone through great lengths to avoid banning 22s in any form so despite falling into the “look-alike” category mentioned in RCMP documents, the bulk of these firearms will be ignored.
What is likely to be on the list (but not certain) is the MP40 in 9mm.


RUMORS

Now that the facts have been established we can discuss rumors. There are hundreds of rumors but I will only address the ones that are either prolific or have been stated by people of influence in the firearm community.

Rumor 1: After market stocks and mag conversion kits will be made illegal to import but not illegal to possess or manufacture.
Response: F2. This is possible by OIC although it would be a CBSA OIC not a firearms one. Industry in Canada would quickly fill this gap.  Some Canadian companies already specialize in this type of work.

Rumor 2: Night vision will be banned
Response: F5. Garbage. NV is used more often by non gun owners than gun owners. With General Starlight out of Ontario providing these items, the best they could do is ban imports to choke off consumer grade models.  The idea of adding it as an endorsement to a PAL is not supported by law.  The bulk of NV is held by non PAL holders and forcing them to get firearm certified would work against the Liberal disarmament agenda.

Rumor 3: There are 200 line items on the ban list.
Response: C6. The accuracy and validity of this information can not be judged.  One comment: when a ban is done (as in the past) it must capture all the manufacturers and variants. The Swiss arms takes up 11 line items.  Getting to 200 is not as hard as you might think.  Some bad news; if this '200' number is correct, even considering all the lines that my list takes up, there is still room for another 50 or so firearms that I have missed.

Rumor 4: It is a semi auto ban.
Response: F5. No it isn’t. That can not be done with OIC. OIC can only name specifics. Generalizations are held by the criminal code.  They can change the law later but right now Blair says they will proceed via OIC. If that does not convince you, consider that there were 1.2 million registered semi auto long guns on the old long gun registry (ended in 2012). Blair claims they will take 250,000 to 275,000 guns 'off the street'.
Just looking at the numbers, a grade 2 student can tell you that it's not all semi autos.

Rumor 5: Pinned magazines will remain legal but the importation or manufacture of large bodied mags (that could be unpinned) will not be allowed.
Response: F3. Plausible. Again, it would be an import OIC not a firearms one but workable and legal.

Rumor 6: Some bolt action rifles are on the list.
Response: F4. I don't see why not but the optics would be terrible depending on what they are talking about.  Anything other than 50BMG would shatter the narrative that this is only for 'assault rifles'. I rate this as unlikely outside of 50BMG.

Rumor 7: They will use the New Zealand list.
Response: F5. Flat out no. Examining this history of Canadian gun bans and attempted gun bans shows a pattern that the NZ list does not fit.  The claim that Trudeau wants to out virtue-signal Arden has no analytical basis and shows a distinct lack of understanding of The Canadian situation.  This is the stupidest of the rumors.

Rumor 8: ACR, Tavor, XCR and Garand are on the list.
Response: C2.  This could easily be a A2 statement if there was corroborating evidence for the ACR, XCR and Garand.  I regard this a likely (but not certain)


INDUCTIVE REASONING

AR102 designs and AR10s look and operate almost exactly like AR15s.  With all the heavy advertising and attempts to duplicate the AR102 by multiple manufacturers makes this a design that has likely caught the attention of the gun grabbers.

The Lynx is a semi-auto 50BMG bullpup.  It sounds scary, looks good for CBC viewers, and the relative few that are in Canada make them easy pickings.

The BRS-99 (Polish Uzi) first came into Canada years ago.  I had a chance to examine the insides of some of the first to come into country and found that it was a converted automatic with the auto sear still intact.  This was probably a one-off anomaly that the police overlooked because the guns were restricted and traceable.  Now, with non-restricted barrel kits, it is easy to move them back between categories.  If we apply the Hasselwander case (1993) pertaining to ease of conversion and the fact that these are easy to de-register, it is not a stretch to have these as a desirable firearm to ban.  Like the Swiss Arms "550 pattern" rifles, they might just want the whole batch rather then to sort out the converteds from the non.


CONCLUSION

Don’t despair.  By default these guns will go to the mystery 12(9) class in C-71.  Getting them out of your hands will take time which is something minority governments tend not to have.  An early stage ban can be reversed by a new government.

When the official list comes out study it.  Print it out.  Keep it in your gun safe and car.  There will be a lot of guns NOT on the list and having the banned list could help prevent an unnecessary conflict with law enforcement.

Comply with the bans.  Double lock everything left over.  They can not search everyone so they will rely on terror and suffering to stomp on a few gun owners publicly.  They will do this to create fear so others do not resist.  Don’t be one of those gun owners; your AR-15 is not worth it.

Keep your parts and bits:  BCGs, barrels, magazines etc.  They retain value still.



Good luck


* These guns are already prohibited
** The DA50 is actually an upper that fits on a AR-15 lower so is not considered a firearm on its own.  I debated adding this or not.