I have refrained from immediately commenting on the Liberal win while I allowed my sense of anger and betrayal to subside allowing logic and clarity to take hold.
You don't need Specter Arms to explain the social aspects of this disaster. I am certain you are being bombarded with those messages. There is reason to fear but we need to understand the enemy if we want to mount an effective resistance to him. This is where I can lend my voice.
This article was originally twice its size. But it was too long of a read so I cut the part out explaining what you could do and what Specter Arms is doing. The scope of this article will cover a calm dispassionate look at Liberal courses of action (COA), their likelihood and the supporting arguments for these COA.
We need to examine the Liberal gun banning history specifically the prohibitions of the 1990s, the firearms act, the failed bill S-223 and finally C-71.
These all offer insights into how they think, what they perceive as achievable political objectives and who is advising them.
Firstly Liberal politicians understand nothing about guns except what American TV has shown them. When it comes to writing law, they rely on firearm 'experts' willing to work with them or "consult " as it was described during S-223.
These firearm consultants have a minimal knowledge at best and are often firearms owners described in the firearms community as "fudds". They believe that only their firearms are worth preserving. They want to keep Grandpa's shitty Cooey, their shotguns and bolt action rifles so all proposed laws deliberately avoid these guns.
The firearms act goes through great pains to emphasize 'center fire semi-auto' to exclude Grandpa's Cooey and their bolt action rifles. S-223 proposed a registry and central storage for everything except rimfires and shotguns.
The firearm prohibitions by Order in Council (OIC) never targeted 22 rifles directly (except the Calico) although a few got the ax by the RCMP interpretations of variants.
I feel confident in saying this pattern will continue as it is an unbroken pattern spanning decades; the Liberal consultants will advise to protect their chosen firearms.
-Rimfires will not be targeted
-Manual actions will not be targeted
-Semi auto shotguns are less likely to be targeted
Looking back at the OIC prohibitions we know from Freedom of Information Requests that these guns were picked because they looked scary and were well advertised bringing them to the attention of politicians. Back in the day, they flipped through copies of gun magazines flagging the ones they did not like the look of.
Flip through the pages of Caliber magazine and see the new list of proposed firearms prohibitions.
People point to the RCMP and the Coalition for Gun Control as providing input. Historically the Liberals have openly ignored their suggestions. That is why the Mini-14 has remained non restricted. And believe it or not, they don't like the RCMP either. Allan Rock sought to isolate gun owners and police from each other as they were natural allies typically holding conservative views. A counterpoint to this thought is the recent statement by the Liberals that says that the police should decide what is legal. This muddies the waters analytically.
C-71 does not provide insight into what they may ban. It only confirms that they are going to ban by grandfathering. This contradicts the more recent Liberal talk of a buy back but it still offers another option should the buy back be prohibitive.
I feel that the buy back will be used only for restricted firearms that can be immediately captured while C-71's 12(9) class will be used to target non restricted firearms.
The final factor we need to consider is the minority government. Some Liberal proposals require a legislative change. Even with a majority government and moderate changes, C-71 required a huge effort to get passed.
Legislative changes regarding hand gun storage AND changing the firearms classification system are unlikely to pass.
Conclusion: we at Specter Arms see potential 2 COAs.
Most Likely COA - Bans By OIC
C-71 is in place to allow for easy no compensation bans. It requires no votes, no stress and no fanfare. There is no reason to work with other parties to reach a consensus. OIC is by decree. It keeps the vague promise of "getting rid of assault weapons".
I am still using sources and methods to determine what this list is.
Most Dangerous COA - Legislative Change
The Liberals pass a law to amend the firearms act to make all center-fire semi-auto rifles prohibited.
This will capture all future sporting firearms and kill the innovation that Canadian firearms businesses are known for. Industry can not come up with new designs to fill the demand for sporting arms under this COA.
This COA represents the death of the firearms industry.
This COA is least likely because they need to change the law. After Gun Organizations parade out wood stocked BARs and M1A1s - not assault rifle looking - they will have major resistance. I think their consultants know this too.
COAs are not exclusive; they may opt to attack on two fronts and do both. Attack with OICs in the first wave to take most firearm owners out of the game and then try legislative change. Or they may go for legislative change and use OIC as a fall back should it fail.
