Recently I just finished a criminal intelligence course. The material was not new to me but it put intelligence analysis back into the forefront of my mind. I started to think analytically about the recent strange behavior coming out of the RCMP firearms lab.
The RCMP approved an AKM (AK47) look alike called the Canadian Sporting rifle. It looks exactly like an AKM and even takes AK47 magazines in the standard AK47 caliber of 7.62x39 Soviet. The internals are reported to be different. This flies in the face of previous RCMP rulings most noteable the .22LR Armi Jager. It looks like an AK47 but it had different internals, different materials and fired a different caliber all while using a different magazine. It was classed as prohibited based on looks alone. This was not an isolated thing; the crappy GSG-5 was also deemed prohibited because it looked exactly like a MP5. Different materials, different internals, different caliber but its appearance made it prohibited. The Colt-Umarex .22LR: restricted because of looks. This sudden departure from what has been the RCMP norm for well over the 8 years I have been involved in the industry suggests something has changed.
- Management. Last I heard, Bill Etter was still in charge of that gong show so this is unlikely. Perhaps the techs are cool guys who like guns?
- Money changed hands. Lets face it, there have been RCMP members caught killing people in jail cells and having sex with underage girls in cars, is it that far fetched to think some bribery took place?
- One of the techs snuck this in because he personally wants an AK. I know several people who are part of the gun control bureaucracy only because they want to act as agents of positive change; agents that are secretly on our side.
- Politicians put boots to ass and forced a change. That is how I forced the RCMP lab to give the S2 the ok. But the S2 I sent to the lab had no telltale features that looked like any other firearms.
I have had dealing with the lab so I know they are a slow, inefficient and stubborn bureaucracy. This fact forces me to conclude that this gun went to the RCMP lab anywhere from a year to 6 months ago.
So speaking analytically we have 3 hypothesis. Now lets looks at some disturbing data.
Recently the RCMP firearms lab has determined that the Sig Special “Sig 550” that the receiver is the same as its select fire counterparts. This moves the rifle from the category of non-restricted rifle into the prohibited category of “Converted Auto” – a made up Canadian term developed to ban more guns. Despite having no capability to fire full auto with no full auto fire control parts, it may be deemed an illegal gun. The RCMP did this with a small batch of VZ58 that mistakenly were sent with a converted auto receiver. So using deductive reasoning we can eliminate our first hypothesis from the list.
Even though they act like they are above the law, the RCMP must answer to parliament and the Minister of Public Safety. So what do you get when you force a bureaucrat to do something he does not want to do? A pissed off petty man who lashes out at those he thinks are beneath him. The Sig rifle may be a backlash to punish the citizens of Canada for forcing them through the democratic process to allow an AKM variant to hit the market.
Politics should be considered as well. So I will add it as a fourth Hypothesis. The RCMP actually lost the GSG-5 case before it went to the appeal court and was overturned. If the Canadian Sporting Rifle was deemed illegal (as the past pattern suggests) it could be another legal battle. You see the RCMP are playing a high stakes game, if they deemed it prohibited and lost a court case on the CSR it would force them to re-evaluate and re-classify many of their other prohibited firearms back to non-restricted status. Their credibility would be forever lost in the courts in regards to firearms and more importantly they would lose positive control over many more guns. This hypothesis fits the story of the CSR but not that of the Sig Rifle. Interesting.
Our new list of theories:
1 The firearms lab is taking bribes.
2 A Firearms Lab tech wants his own “AK47”
3 Politicians or put pressure on the RCMP labs with the “Canadian Sporting Rifle.” The RCMP labs responded to this insult by jumping on the “Ban”-Wagon.
4 The RCMP fear a court case that could shatter them.
This new data does not support theory 1 or 2 but it does not disprove it. Through inductive reasoning theory 3 is looking more likely. The introduction of the Sig Rifle data lowers the probability of Theory 4 as this could be a feared court challenge. But these events may not actually be linked meaning that it could be more then one of these factors after all it is a mistake to assume that decisions and actions are the result of a grand, organized hierarchy. Sometimes what happens is the result of misunderstood orders, political maneuverings or even insubordination.
News has also surfaced about the RCMP looking long and hard at the Norinco CQ rifle. This is a copy of the M4. Unlike most other AR15’s that enter Canada, this one is shipped with a full auto bolt. There are no other full-auto fire control parts. Apparently a gunsmith/manufacturer complained about it. The result of the Norinco investigation will suggest the driving influence behind the RCMP’s actions.
a. If the Norinco M4 comes back as restricted (what it is now) I would guess the lab’s goal is control. The rifle is part of the gun registry so it is still under the positive control of the RCMP. They have no interest other then to prevent the loss of more gun registry data. If the Norinco M4 stays restricted, I predict that the RCMP will work to reclassify as many non-restricted rifles as possible to keep accurate tabs on firearms and their owners. This action would also be another indicator that Hypothesis 3 is correct and Hypothesis 4 is not.
b. If the Norinco M4 comes back as prohibited, I would guess the lab’s goal is confiscation and starting a spearhead to eventually take other AR15s. The AR15 is only restricted because of name. A simple change in the Order in Council would force the AR15 (except for ones with silly short barrels) off the registry and into the land of non-restricted rifles. With a legitimate reason for an all out ban it would serve the RCMP’s interest to re-classify. This time they would have a real legal leg to stand on. This would mean that Hypothesis 4 is most likely correct.
I must conclude that, at this time, I can not definitively say what is going on. But I rate my hypothesis’ like this:
Hypothesis 1 (The firearms lab is taking bribes.): Unlikely
Despite some serious ego issues and some limited criminal actions, the RCMP is a large organization that for the most part is moral and just. To bribe the entire lab would be uneconomical considering how small our gun ownership actually is.
Hypothesis 2 (A Firearms Lab tech wants his own “AK47”): Possible
We know that our people are secretly embedded in the gun control structure. It is highly likely that such a person would love an AK47 but the size of the organization suggests this would be a tough one to sneak past the other lab people. It would depend on his ingenuity and understanding of the bureaucratic function. I would rate this as only “Possible.”
Hypothesis 3 (Politicians put pressure on the RCMP labs with the “Canadian Sporting Rifle.”): Likely
The RCMP must obey Parliament but dislike doing so. They managed to dance around my MP for a solid 3 months resisting my attempts to make a lawful living. When the Long Gun Registry was scrapped the RCMP’s CFOs attempted to punish the people through slow transfer times, a backdoor registry and ridiculous ATT restrictions. If their petty past is an indicator of the future they are trying to punish the public for demands placed on them through our democratic process.
Hypothesis 4 (Credibility called into question): Highly Likely
The RCMP were on the brink of losing the GSG-5 battle. A lower court held that the function of a firearm made it a variant. The appeals court ruled that identical guns are a variant noting the guns in question were advertised as a .22LR version of their prohibited counterparts. As no literature and/or advertisements make the “AK47” claim for the Canadian Sporting Rifle, the RCMP may feel that the element that got them to win last time, is missing.
In conclusion, we don’t know exactly what is going on, but I suspect things will get very clear in the next year.
