C-71 and the 12-9 Mystery

C-71 has passed.

Friendly senators have done a valiant job of delaying this bill for months on end but the political bag of tricks ran out today.

Rather than focusing on what the bill means (which I have discussed already) I would like to take the time to lay out what possible scenarios are for the future.

This bill was created for a hidden purpose.  We all know it creates a shadow registry, we also know it eliminates most authorizations to transport, it shuts down gun shows and we also know it bans two rifles.  But C-71 has a mystery provision called 12-9; an empty prohibition class.

Under the law a firearm may be banned by decree, this is called an Order In Council.  This has been part of firearms law since the 90s.  Almost every time this provision was used, the law was altered to create a grandfathering class so people owning those guns, did not lose them.  However, the law does not grant automatic grandfathering.  In fact any OIC issued before C-71 would of required confiscation and destruction of any named firearms.  The SPAS-12 was an example of a firearm banned by OIC that was seized and destroyed.

12-9 allows for the OIC ban wagon to go full force without the legal challenge, political cost or monetary cost associated with seizing firearms.  There is literally nothing holding back the Liberal overlords from banning away.  Without C-71, I would go so far as to say (in a practical sense) gun bans would of been impossible.

This is a problem.  Industry has responded to past OICs by producing new products; products that were previously secure from OICs.  We got the XCR, the Modern Varminter, the VZ58... the list goes on;  all guns that would of been banned in 1997 if they had existed or were popular enough to be in American magazines.  C-71 allows the government to quickly throw guns into the 12-9 ban category.  We can't count on industry to save our sporing rifles this time.  As fast as they can build and develop them, the government can declare them verboten.

Consider most guns are imported.  Before a gun can be imported CBSA must get the RCMP's opinion of the gun in the form of a FRT entry (firearms reference table).  While the RCMP are obligated to classify based on the law (Section 86) they can also pass on the name of guns they don't like to the public safety minister who, in turn, can rapidly OIC it into oblivion.

The only viable sporting rifles will be ones domestically produced.  There is no law.... NONE... requiring manufacturers to get a FRT.  The manufacturer needs to respect the provisions of Section 86 but there is no reason (except for export) to get RCMP attention (and thus a potential OIC) targeted on their product.

Now, with all of this being said.  I don't think we are going to see a massive 1997 style ban list;  that is a worst case scenario.  I think it will be 1 to 5 firearms with one of those being the AR15 platform.

Time will tell.