Bill Blair Gives up the Secret

 Most gun owners are now aware about the massive ban on firearms that took place one day before Quebec Grave Dancing day.

I watched the announcement carefully.  Bill Blair stated that the Department of National Defence would be used to sort out what rifles would be suitable for donation to Ukraine.  This seems to suggest that the military transport and logistic systems are likely to be used to collect newly prohibited firearms.  Basically, Canadian Soldiers going door to door taking property under threat of force.

Imagine the military going door to door taking guns.  With tens of thousands of prohibited rifles something is going to go wrong, someone will be hurt, or killed.

Remember that Bill Blair runs the military.  The same tyrant that authorized illegal detentions when he was in charge of the Toronto Police and the G20 summit was in town. 

Now consider a government who, despite being advised by CSIS to the contrary during the Trucker Protest, decided to invoke the Emergencies Act.  The lucky ones would be arrested (without cause) with no habaes corpus.  Freezing bank accounts.  And those who speak up, gun owner or not, would be jailed under Trudeau's anti-free speech law.

For the unlucky ones... well... the stage is set with the unpunished death of Rodger Kotanko.   They can simply kill those who oppose the Liberals like rabid dogs using the excuse they had "Weapons of War".

Alberta Firearms Act

The Alberta Firearms Act is a sad smokescreen sold to gun owners as a means of protecting our lawfully owned property.

Having read it, it seems that half the bill sets the stage for all the relevant restrictions to be set by OIC.  OIC is fine when you have a friendly government as Danielle Smith's UCP seems to be.  But she will not be in power forever.  What if a less friendly person took the head of government?  Without needing to repeal Bill 8, they could simply loosen restricitons through the OIC channels set up in the bill.  Overnight, protections could evaporate with the stroke of a pen.  When Tyler Shandro sells it as "being flexible" what he is doing, is setting the stage for a future hostile government to scoop the guns up.

The Alberta bill is weak and offers no protection compared to the Sask firearms bill.  The Sask Firearms Act is full of bite, laying out an impossible scenario for confiscation agents to follow requiring hundreds of years to execute and tens of millions of dollars in new infrastructure.  To remove it, will require it to go through the legislative process which could buy gun owners critical months to mount resistance to the bill.

The Alberta Firearms Act, is not cause to celebrate.  In fact, I see it as a means to make us complacent and easier to victimize when we least expect it.

Liberals Say FU to Court Regarding OICs

You have probably heard that in the Order In Council case, where the government banned thousands of firearms, the government has refused to hand over documents related to their discussions leading up to the ban.  They have classified them as Secret and thus denied the judicial order to produce them.  

Buy why?  Is it a game?  The commonly held theory is that the delays and denials are designed to run out the clock and reach the end of the amnesty before the court can reach a resolution.  In running out of time, with no injunction, everyone loses the banned guns.

But I have a more sinister theory.  I think the documents were made secret under Section 39 CEA not for the purpose of maintaining the gun ban but because those documents hold plans that have not been executed yet.  

I am increasingly convinced these documents hold planned enforcement actions.  I think they have one of the following items in those documents (perhaps more):

-Arrest lists designed to shape the public’s view about “evil gun owners” and punish political rivals.  Can you imagine if those documents had planned raids against Sheldon Claire and Rod Giltaca?  What about gun owning Conservative MPs?  With free speech about to be silenced with bill C-10, many people would simply disappear into a hole and never be heard from again.

-The immediate seizure and auditing of gun businesses who have dealt in the now prohibited goods.  We all know from other government inquiries and fact finding missions, that this process takes years.  How many businesses can be shut down for a few years and survive?  I expect that real political agitators such as K&S Tactical Supplies will somehow… take longer.  And if they really wanted to smash the entire industry in one fell swoop, they could target importers like Korth, North Sylva, IRG and so on… choke everyone off from supply.

-Reconstruction of long gun registry records.  Arrests of last known owners unless they can produce records or names of where the guns went.  Police will level your home with bulldozers and sledgehammers to find what they are looking for.  Ask Bruce Montague. 

Any one of these, would cause an outcry that even CBC would be hard pressed to put a happy spin on.

Today In Court

For those who may not be in the know, the CCFR (Specter Arms is business member) had their day in court to challenge the OIC.

Although I am cautious about making any sweeping statements, one thing that popped out was the admission by everyone that the FRT is not law.  It was suggested that it was not law but still enforceable as such which drew a legal version of WTF from the judge.

With this in mind, I am confident that the guns banned outside of the OIC (such as the F12 Typhoon, the SLR and the Modern Hunter to name a few) will be saved.  This point alone will echo through the next round of proposed court cases as well as future government legislation.  This should also help ATRS in their lawsuit.  I’ve said it before, I will say it again: I hope Rick from ATRS crushes the government and retires to a tropical island surrounded by beautiful ladies sleeping on pillows full of cash. He deserves it.

I am on the fence about the efficacy of the arguments against the OIC itself.  I can’t find any one argument that fills me with hope or gloom.

A lot was said but I concentrated mostly on what the impact to industry was.

The Crown’s main argument is that manufacturers can make something else therefore they incur no loss.  They also argue that people can seek financial remedies through the legal system, therefore they suffer no risk to finances or livelihood.  Yes, it was brought up that the OIC planned for more bans as industry adapted.  I have always raged against the cowards who invest and develop these straight pull ‘AR-15’ rifles, those guys are the reason the crown’s arguments hold water and those guys will be indirectly responsible if the OIC stands. 

No decision yet.  I will post more when I know more.

AR15 Straight Pull Bolt Actions - Farts and Fairydust

"People appreciate it when you tell the truth, until you tell the truth to them; then you're an asshole" - George Carlin



On 1May the long expected ban list was released.  Our prediction had an astounding 90% accuracy.  What was not expected was the overreach that happened next.
The RCMP, in a vengeful and petty fashion, decided to go above and beyond the 1May order in council (OIC) and ban many firearms as AR15 variants despite previous, documented opinions that they were in fact not. They named anything that remotely looked like an AR15 including a bolt action shotgun and a cheap 22 as variants. There was no consideration for action, mechanics or caliber.

Now this is the truth that will outrage people; the new crop of "defeatist" firearms such as the all the straight pull AR15s being released... Are going to be banned.

Don't kid yourself, they banned a BOLT ACTION shotgun because it looked like an AR15. They will ban your bolt action AR15 forgery because .... Wait for it ... It looks like a AR15. And surprise, surprise, unlike the shotgun, these new rifles are legitimately variants using a lot of the same internals and external furniture.

So the people who got kicked in the nuts with the AR15 ban are being tricked into taking a big ol' cock slap by getting stuck with even more banned firearms.

But the trustworthy government promised you a buyback... No risk, right?  Are you foolish enough to believe there will be a buyback? What party will pair with the minority government to vote for that? To give something to a group they distain? They already made the guns illegal... They already won, they don't need to make concessions.

Yes buying these guns is chasing good money after bad.  They could of built these designs to look externally like a SCAR or Tavor (both safe, un-bannable designs) or even did something original but they made the choice to make them look like AR15s in the hope of appealing to anger-blind gun owners for a quick buck.

Put your money into fighting for your real AR15 back or get a new gun; don't piss it away on a fairytale scam hoping to appease your Liberal masters.

Get up and fight

What Is on The Ban List

SUMMARY

This document attempts to answer, in part, the question, “What is on the Liberal Ban List”.
The list is being kept a secret but several clues, rumors and inductive reasoning illuminates some of this list.  The list that I compiled, IS NOT A COMPLETE LIST.  Bill Blair is being deliberately sneaky and is not releasing the complete list for his own nefarious reasons.

Unlike everyone else pondering lists on the internet, I have included my methodology and reasoning.

Firstly, I have posted the list.  Most people are not interested in why I came up with what I did so I have spared them from a long read.  For those interested in hearing more, they can read on.


THE INCOMPLETE LIST

Will Be Banned:
-Vz58 family
-M305 family
-Ar15
-Mini-xx family
-SKS rifles
-CX4
-Type 97
-Tavor
-Swiss Arms

High Likelihood of Being Banned
-MP40 (9mm)
-XCR
-ACR
-AR10s
-AR102 variants (BCL102, Stag 102 Troy 102)

Moderate Likelyhood of Being Banned
-DA50**
-Lynx
-BRS-99



METHODOLGY

Everyone wants to know what is on the Liberal ban list.
Several people claim to have privileged knowledge of this list but respond with vague fear inducing answers, unwilling to give details, sources or methods.
For all we know, they could be pulling information out of their asses for a chance in the internet spotlight.

What we can do is derive reasonable hypothesis based on verifiable facts and rational premises.



THE FACTS

Let's start with what we know and determine to be factually correct.

In an interview done by the CCFR with the thief-chief Bill Blair have laid out the methodology he used to select items for his ban list.  He mentioned the Moncton shooter and the Mosque shooter indicating he is looking at past shooting crimes. He also claims to have input from police as to what they want banned.

Combining this information and Trudeau's statements on Polytechnic we start off with the following list: VZ58 family, m305 family, AR-15, Mini-xx family, SKS rifles, CX4, G3 and variants*.

I deliberately left out the 30-30 used on parliament hill because of Blair's reaction when it was brought up; I am certain it is not on the list.

Blair mentioned he consulted with the police. We know the RCMP in particular have a hate on for some guns as evidenced by documents obtained by FOIP requests.
SKS, Type 97, Tavor, AR-15, Sten guns*, Sterling and semi auto reproductions of assault rifles and submachine  guns.
We also know that C-71 removed parliamentary oversight so we can add the Swiss Arms
"550" type rifles.

We need to explore one of these points, the so called copies of assault rifles and submachine guns.
The RCMP have been very aggressive prohibiting look alikes from the GSG-5 to the Blaze-47. A few have slipped through the cracks: GSG-15, MP44, MP40 (9mm), MP40 (22lr), GSG-16.

All of the above are imported by a company owned by a former RCMP officer.
Outside of that company the ISSC mk22 also gets a pass despite looking exactly like the prohibited-classified Mk16 SCAR.  FYI, the GSG-15 is the same gun as the ISSC mk22 but without the SCAR buttstock.

Traditionally, advisers to the Liberals have gone through great lengths to avoid banning 22s in any form so despite falling into the “look-alike” category mentioned in RCMP documents, the bulk of these firearms will be ignored.
What is likely to be on the list (but not certain) is the MP40 in 9mm.


RUMORS

Now that the facts have been established we can discuss rumors. There are hundreds of rumors but I will only address the ones that are either prolific or have been stated by people of influence in the firearm community.

Rumor 1: After market stocks and mag conversion kits will be made illegal to import but not illegal to possess or manufacture.
Response: F2. This is possible by OIC although it would be a CBSA OIC not a firearms one. Industry in Canada would quickly fill this gap.  Some Canadian companies already specialize in this type of work.

Rumor 2: Night vision will be banned
Response: F5. Garbage. NV is used more often by non gun owners than gun owners. With General Starlight out of Ontario providing these items, the best they could do is ban imports to choke off consumer grade models.  The idea of adding it as an endorsement to a PAL is not supported by law.  The bulk of NV is held by non PAL holders and forcing them to get firearm certified would work against the Liberal disarmament agenda.

Rumor 3: There are 200 line items on the ban list.
Response: C6. The accuracy and validity of this information can not be judged.  One comment: when a ban is done (as in the past) it must capture all the manufacturers and variants. The Swiss arms takes up 11 line items.  Getting to 200 is not as hard as you might think.  Some bad news; if this '200' number is correct, even considering all the lines that my list takes up, there is still room for another 50 or so firearms that I have missed.

Rumor 4: It is a semi auto ban.
Response: F5. No it isn’t. That can not be done with OIC. OIC can only name specifics. Generalizations are held by the criminal code.  They can change the law later but right now Blair says they will proceed via OIC. If that does not convince you, consider that there were 1.2 million registered semi auto long guns on the old long gun registry (ended in 2012). Blair claims they will take 250,000 to 275,000 guns 'off the street'.
Just looking at the numbers, a grade 2 student can tell you that it's not all semi autos.

Rumor 5: Pinned magazines will remain legal but the importation or manufacture of large bodied mags (that could be unpinned) will not be allowed.
Response: F3. Plausible. Again, it would be an import OIC not a firearms one but workable and legal.

Rumor 6: Some bolt action rifles are on the list.
Response: F4. I don't see why not but the optics would be terrible depending on what they are talking about.  Anything other than 50BMG would shatter the narrative that this is only for 'assault rifles'. I rate this as unlikely outside of 50BMG.

Rumor 7: They will use the New Zealand list.
Response: F5. Flat out no. Examining this history of Canadian gun bans and attempted gun bans shows a pattern that the NZ list does not fit.  The claim that Trudeau wants to out virtue-signal Arden has no analytical basis and shows a distinct lack of understanding of The Canadian situation.  This is the stupidest of the rumors.

Rumor 8: ACR, Tavor, XCR and Garand are on the list.
Response: C2.  This could easily be a A2 statement if there was corroborating evidence for the ACR, XCR and Garand.  I regard this a likely (but not certain)


INDUCTIVE REASONING

AR102 designs and AR10s look and operate almost exactly like AR15s.  With all the heavy advertising and attempts to duplicate the AR102 by multiple manufacturers makes this a design that has likely caught the attention of the gun grabbers.

The Lynx is a semi-auto 50BMG bullpup.  It sounds scary, looks good for CBC viewers, and the relative few that are in Canada make them easy pickings.

The BRS-99 (Polish Uzi) first came into Canada years ago.  I had a chance to examine the insides of some of the first to come into country and found that it was a converted automatic with the auto sear still intact.  This was probably a one-off anomaly that the police overlooked because the guns were restricted and traceable.  Now, with non-restricted barrel kits, it is easy to move them back between categories.  If we apply the Hasselwander case (1993) pertaining to ease of conversion and the fact that these are easy to de-register, it is not a stretch to have these as a desirable firearm to ban.  Like the Swiss Arms "550 pattern" rifles, they might just want the whole batch rather then to sort out the converteds from the non.


CONCLUSION

Don’t despair.  By default these guns will go to the mystery 12(9) class in C-71.  Getting them out of your hands will take time which is something minority governments tend not to have.  An early stage ban can be reversed by a new government.

When the official list comes out study it.  Print it out.  Keep it in your gun safe and car.  There will be a lot of guns NOT on the list and having the banned list could help prevent an unnecessary conflict with law enforcement.

Comply with the bans.  Double lock everything left over.  They can not search everyone so they will rely on terror and suffering to stomp on a few gun owners publicly.  They will do this to create fear so others do not resist.  Don’t be one of those gun owners; your AR-15 is not worth it.

Keep your parts and bits:  BCGs, barrels, magazines etc.  They retain value still.



Good luck


* These guns are already prohibited
** The DA50 is actually an upper that fits on a AR-15 lower so is not considered a firearm on its own.  I debated adding this or not.

Analysis of Potential Actions Against Canadian Firearms Owners

I have refrained from immediately commenting on the Liberal win while I allowed my sense of anger and betrayal to subside allowing logic and clarity to take hold.

You don't need Specter Arms to explain the social aspects of this disaster. I am certain you are being bombarded with those messages.  There is reason to fear but we need to understand the enemy if we want to mount an effective resistance to him. This is where I can lend my voice.

This article was originally twice its size. But it was too long of a read so I cut the part out explaining what you could do and what Specter Arms is doing. The scope of this article will cover a calm dispassionate look at Liberal courses of action  (COA), their likelihood and the supporting arguments for these COA.

We need to examine the Liberal gun banning history specifically the prohibitions of the 1990s, the firearms act, the failed bill S-223 and finally C-71.
These all offer insights into how they think, what they perceive as achievable political objectives and who is advising them.

Firstly Liberal politicians understand nothing about guns except what American TV has shown them. When it comes to writing law, they rely on firearm 'experts' willing to work with them or "consult " as it was described during S-223.
These firearm consultants have a minimal knowledge at best and are often firearms owners described in the firearms community as "fudds". They believe that only their firearms are worth preserving. They want to keep Grandpa's shitty Cooey, their shotguns and bolt action rifles so all proposed laws deliberately avoid these guns.
The firearms act goes through great pains to emphasize 'center fire semi-auto' to exclude Grandpa's Cooey and their bolt action rifles. S-223 proposed a registry and central storage for everything except rimfires and shotguns.
The firearm prohibitions by Order in Council (OIC) never targeted 22 rifles directly (except the Calico) although a few got the ax by the RCMP interpretations of variants.
I feel confident in saying this pattern will continue as it is an unbroken pattern spanning decades; the Liberal consultants will advise to protect their chosen firearms.
-Rimfires will not be targeted
-Manual actions will not be targeted
-Semi auto shotguns are less likely to be targeted

Looking back at the OIC prohibitions we know from Freedom of Information Requests that these guns were picked because they looked scary and were well advertised bringing them to the attention of politicians. Back in the day, they flipped through copies of gun magazines flagging the ones they did not like the look of.
Flip through the pages of Caliber magazine and see the new list of proposed firearms prohibitions.

People point to the RCMP and the Coalition for Gun Control as providing input. Historically the Liberals have openly ignored their suggestions. That is why the Mini-14 has remained non restricted. And believe it or not, they don't like the RCMP either. Allan Rock sought to isolate gun owners and police from each other as they were natural allies typically holding conservative views. A counterpoint to this thought is the recent statement by the Liberals that says that the police should decide what is legal.  This muddies the waters analytically.

C-71 does not provide insight into what they may ban. It only confirms that they are going to ban by grandfathering. This contradicts the more recent Liberal talk of a buy back but it still offers another option should the buy back be prohibitive.
I feel that the buy back will be used only for restricted  firearms that can be immediately captured while C-71's 12(9) class will be used to target non restricted firearms.

The final factor we need to consider is the minority government. Some Liberal proposals require a legislative change. Even with a majority government and moderate changes, C-71 required a huge effort to get passed.
Legislative changes regarding hand gun storage AND changing the firearms classification system are unlikely to pass.



Conclusion: we at Specter Arms see potential 2 COAs.

Most Likely COA - Bans By OIC

C-71 is in place to allow for easy no compensation bans.  It requires no votes, no stress and no fanfare.  There is no reason to work with other parties to reach a consensus.  OIC is by decree.  It keeps the vague promise of "getting rid of assault weapons".

I am still using sources and methods to determine what this list is.


Most Dangerous COA - Legislative Change

The Liberals pass a law to amend the firearms act to make all center-fire semi-auto rifles prohibited.
This will capture all future sporting firearms and kill the innovation that Canadian firearms businesses are known for.  Industry can not come up with new designs to fill the demand for sporting arms under this COA.
This COA represents the death of the firearms industry.
This COA is least likely because they need to change the law.  After Gun Organizations parade out wood stocked BARs and M1A1s - not assault rifle looking - they will have major resistance.  I think their consultants know this too.


COAs are not exclusive; they may opt to attack on two fronts and do both.  Attack with OICs in the first wave to take most firearm owners out of the game and then try legislative change.  Or they may go for legislative change and use OIC as a fall back should it fail.

Declaration of War

I’d like to address the open declaration of war against gun owners by the race-baiting, blackface wearing, man child posing as the prime minister.
I have been asked what this means and unfortunately I can not tell you exactly.  His statement was vague.
There are several possibilities of what his words can mean.  As time goes on, I hope to get a more accurate picture of what his ill-targeted intent actually is.

The most likely scenario is a ban by OIC.  Easy OICs have already been established by the passing of C-71.  They will target AR-15s and some big firearm names.  Some of these firearms will be bought back like he says, but costs will quickly spiral out of control forcing them to put the bulk of their bans in the Mystery 12(9) class.  Storage regulations can be changed by OIC to allow lower governments a say in storage but this will be challenged in court and I expect it to be defeated.
OICs require no parliamentary debate.  They are easy and the limited attack on gun owners and our previous pattern of “taking it” will ensure their agenda advances without resistance.

The most dangerous scenario is a legal change.  If they attack by OIC, gun manufacturers can adapt with new designs just like they have in the past.  If they change the law to ban all magazine fed semi-autos, the gun industry and our sport will never recover.  People taking up hunting is down but people taking up target, sport and action shooting is way up.  It is the later groups that will be criminalized.  They proved they can make changes with C-71 with no repercussions.

More information is needed to determine what path they will take.

What Will The Shiny Pony Do?

I have no illusions about who is going to win the next federal election.  It will be Justin Trudeau - The Shiny Pony.  All fancy hair and no substance.

Liberals are known as the architects of the destruction of self-reliance, moral values and traditional society.  Their creative brain power is unmatched in these areas and I can’t even start to guess what they plan to do.

But I do know they will do something about guns.

I have avoided writing this blog entry for months (hence the huge gap between writings).  I wanted to carefully evaluate The Shiny Pony’s options and present them as competing hypothesis.

1) Handgun Ban.

For all intents and purposes, all handguns are registered.  As an election promise, the Evil Paul Martin proposed a handgun ban as his election promise.  The chance of this succeeding is guaranteed.  (Yes I know there will be smuggled handguns but these are statistically insignificant).

2) Move Semi-Autos to Restricted

This would be less palatable to the population then a handgun ban as many high end hunting guns are semi-auto such as the BAR or collectables such as the Garand.  According to the old registry data, the Garand is the most popular semi-auto gun in Quebec.  As much as I fear this, I think it is the least likely of the hypothesis I propose.

3) New Orders in Council

This does not require any legal changes or votes in the house of commons.  Through an Order in Council (OIC), they can move many evil looking guns into restricted and prohibited classes.  They would almost certainly pick VZ58s, Tavors, XCRs and JR Carbines to move to restricted.  Ironically I predict that the Mini-14 and the CX4 (both used in Canadian school shootings) would be left alone.  I don’t think they would name any gun as prohibited due to the outcry from the Swiss Arms fiasco; even non-gun owners considered that to be an unfair, “dick move” by the RCMP.  Regardless of what guns they move to Restricted, the decision will be based on looks alone and not capability.  (My pump action shotgun (when loaded with 00 buck) can fire 54 projectiles down range before being reloaded and can cut a man in half.  My AR15 can fire 5 projectiles down range before being reloaded and has been shown to be highly ineffective in battlezones such as Mogadishu.)

4) Stop PAL Issuance For Restricted Firearms

It would not piss anyone off as people with the Restricted endorsement would not be affected.  It would only stop new people from getting into handguns.  This is like a handgun ban but spaced out over the long term. It would be acceptable to the Canadian public because no one is really getting screwed.  If you didn’t have and handgun before and now you still can’t have one, has anything really been taken away from you?  The truth is Canadians fear handguns the same way Americans fear rifles.

5) Increase Fees for License Renewal

The Liberals are the Party of the rich and privileged and even Nazi elites were still allowed to own personal firearms.  Making a staggeringly huge fee to renew your license will drive the undesirable poor people away from guns.  According to Liberal philosophy, people are victims of their circumstances and have no free will.  In their mind, denying the poor access to potential weapons will decrease the lethality of the crimes that they are forced to commit.

I think these are all options that are politically viable.  What do you think?  What will he do?