C-71 and the 12-9 Mystery

C-71 has passed.

Friendly senators have done a valiant job of delaying this bill for months on end but the political bag of tricks ran out today.

Rather than focusing on what the bill means (which I have discussed already) I would like to take the time to lay out what possible scenarios are for the future.

This bill was created for a hidden purpose.  We all know it creates a shadow registry, we also know it eliminates most authorizations to transport, it shuts down gun shows and we also know it bans two rifles.  But C-71 has a mystery provision called 12-9; an empty prohibition class.

Under the law a firearm may be banned by decree, this is called an Order In Council.  This has been part of firearms law since the 90s.  Almost every time this provision was used, the law was altered to create a grandfathering class so people owning those guns, did not lose them.  However, the law does not grant automatic grandfathering.  In fact any OIC issued before C-71 would of required confiscation and destruction of any named firearms.  The SPAS-12 was an example of a firearm banned by OIC that was seized and destroyed.

12-9 allows for the OIC ban wagon to go full force without the legal challenge, political cost or monetary cost associated with seizing firearms.  There is literally nothing holding back the Liberal overlords from banning away.  Without C-71, I would go so far as to say (in a practical sense) gun bans would of been impossible.

This is a problem.  Industry has responded to past OICs by producing new products; products that were previously secure from OICs.  We got the XCR, the Modern Varminter, the VZ58... the list goes on;  all guns that would of been banned in 1997 if they had existed or were popular enough to be in American magazines.  C-71 allows the government to quickly throw guns into the 12-9 ban category.  We can't count on industry to save our sporing rifles this time.  As fast as they can build and develop them, the government can declare them verboten.

Consider most guns are imported.  Before a gun can be imported CBSA must get the RCMP's opinion of the gun in the form of a FRT entry (firearms reference table).  While the RCMP are obligated to classify based on the law (Section 86) they can also pass on the name of guns they don't like to the public safety minister who, in turn, can rapidly OIC it into oblivion.

The only viable sporting rifles will be ones domestically produced.  There is no law.... NONE... requiring manufacturers to get a FRT.  The manufacturer needs to respect the provisions of Section 86 but there is no reason (except for export) to get RCMP attention (and thus a potential OIC) targeted on their product.

Now, with all of this being said.  I don't think we are going to see a massive 1997 style ban list;  that is a worst case scenario.  I think it will be 1 to 5 firearms with one of those being the AR15 platform.

Time will tell.

The Shadow Registry and Specter Arms

The new bill, C-71, is poised to create a nightmare scenario by establishing a Shadow Registry.  It is essentially a registry jointly maintained by both the government and licensed firearms dealers as a condition of their license.

So what is the purpose of the Shadow Registry?  Firstly if we think the registrar will follow the letter of the law and not ask for the make and model (like the law suggests) we are deluding ourselves.  But let us assume that they follow the law to the letter.  With private transfers, there is nothing to say that non-restricted transfers need a model or serial number.  Just a verification that a transfer has taken place.  This allows for the government to accurately determine how many firearms are owned.  Inevitably this will help prevent enterprising individuals from using methods to obscure the Shadow Registry kept by gun dealers.  You might ask “what value does knowing that a gun has been transferred with no other attached information?”  To get the answer you need to look at the inferred and stated goals of Canada’s gun control scheme; disarm everyone.  By recording how many people had firearms transferred to them and how many went out, the government can accurately determine the real amounts of guns owned by new generation shooters.  When it comes time to send the door kickers to take the guns, they either get them all or arrest the gun owner because the numbers don’t match up.

And then there is the lie that gun records from retail businesses will need a warrant to access.  Retail records do not need a warrant.  This is a holdover from the old Long Gun Registry (LGR) (which became irrelevant when it was abolished).  Although it is said the records will require a warrant, it does not repeal the section that permits “looking at the books” and making copies whenever they want.  It is not common knowledge but a firearms business is given their ledger to record firearm sales.  This ledger is provided by the Chief Firearms Officer of the province they are operating out of.  This alone is a subtle reminder that you don’t own the ledger or the information within.

What does this mean for Specter Arms?

Specter Arms has built its business on the philosophy that information and privacy are valuable.  As soon as the LGR was abolished, we stopped keeping this information.  We would check if the license was valid yes, but never did we hold on to that information.  Our sales literally rose over 1000% when the LGR was gone.  What once was a struggling business became viable with our annual growth (post 2012) at 13% per year.  Why was this?  Well, privacy was the big thing.  Pre 2012, there was no reason to buy from anyone except a large retailer.  There was no privacy because of the LGR and buying from a large online retailer was convenient.  This sentiment is mirrored by the fact that from the inception of the LGR to its demise, gun businesses evaporated to only 1/6th of their previous numbers.  Post 2012, new businesses flourished.

Over 99% of SA revenue comes from gun shows.  Without the means to transfer non-restricted firearms on the weekends (CFO offices are closed), the gunshow is destined to die.  No gun shows, translates into a projected decrease in revenues of over 99%.

We at SA have a sneaking suspicion that the large gun dealers and importers are happy with this scheme.  It only serves to drive more business their way by resuming the LGR trend of wiping out small and medium business competitors.  It wipes out the gun show and all the private and grey market dealers as well.

With the new Shadow Registry, we at SA need to re-evaluate our business model.  If we are unwilling to change, we will die a swift death along with the hundreds of new small firearms businesses that are destined to die.

SA has always subscribed to an intelligence driven model which uses social media, statistics and online forums to predict trends and follow those trends.  The Shadow Registry is not a surprise to us and we started transitioning away from sales to manufacturing.  This plan is uniquely the safest but also the most dangerous; it is quite the oxymoron.  It is safe because re-investing in inventory for sales is bound to leave us caught with thousands of dollars in inventory that will never be sold.  It is dangerous because if we can not get the S3 and S5 rifle projects to market before the money runs out, we will be finished.

It is a gamble but the alternative is to close down and wait for a friendly government to undo this damage.  We will not go down without a fight; who dares, wins.

If 0%

If a registry came back into place in Canada or was started in the USA and no-one complied, the registry would still be a success.  That’s right, if 0% of people complied the registry would be a success.

One thing we have learned from the cowardly, teeth chattering, grave dancing, fart-suckers in the anti-gun lobby is their game is a game they plan to play over decades.

When the long gun registry was enacted in 1997 there was an estimated 30-50% compliance (depending on who you talk to).  But the fact that all the guns were not registered is irrelevant.  Every new person coming into the shooting sports was trapped in the registry system.  I was underage in 1997 so I never had the option to “not comply”.  From day one of entering the shooting sports everything I did was tightly monitored and controlled.  I committed no crime but I was more carefully monitored then a convicted crack dealer.

Over the years the spineless gun control advocates knew that time would be on their side.  Those who could have had firearms before the registry would eventually die and leave behind those who were born into the registry.

Eventually  all guns would be either unregistered and buried in PVC tubes (rendering them inert) or registered and ready for confiscation.

People say that the registry was ineffective.  It was not.  It was very effective for if it was left in place, in 20 years time, all guns would be ready for confiscation.  That was the true purpose of the registry; it had nothing to do with crime or safety and as such, was not effective in those roles.